Americas
“Colombian Police: Rebels Use Kids to Explode Bombs” (06/25/12)
Excerpt: “Colombia’s National Police released videos to show leftist FARC rebels using teenagers to detonate bombs.”
Analysis: The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) continue to be an issue for Colombian security forces. As videos and pictures are released with young children taking up arms on behalf of the militant group, humanitarian organizations are now being called in to help mitigate the risks that youths face throughout the region. It has been reported that young people are being trained by FARC for close to eight months in remote locations, where they undergo tough and often inhumane training regiments. Read More
“Chavez: Drop in Oil Price Will Not Stop Venezuela Development” (06/25/12)
Excerpt: “President Hugo Chavez said Monday that the drop in oil prices will not affect government plans for Venezuelan development.”
Analysis: After Venezuelan crude oil prices fell last week from $92.06 to $90.09 per barrel due to lowered demand, as well as the influx of OPEC countries’ excess of oil (specifically from Saudi Arabia), Venezuela perhaps faces a slow-down in growth of the country’s economy. Chavez however, claims that despite the recent downturn in oil prices, Venezuela will be able to rebound and maintain its commitment to invest in its social programs, domestic institutions, and technological developments into 2013. Read More
“3 Police Killed in Mexico City Airport Shooting” (06/27/12)
Excerpt: “Federal police officers under investigation for drug trafficking opened fire on fellow officers at Mexico City’s international airport, killing three.”
Analysis: A shooting took place at Benito Juarez International Airport, as a government crackdown on drug trafficking throughout the country has been in effect. President Felipe Calderon has made concerted efforts towards combatting the epidemic violence which stems from drug and criminal activities in Mexico, as more than 47,500 people have died in drug-related violence since December 2006. Such violence is somewhat unusual for Mexico City, however, as the capital has been relatively free from serious drug-related violence. Read More
“Bolivian Police Mutiny Ends with Accord” (06/27/12)
Excerpt: “The ministers of interior and development and three police delegates put their names to the document after long hours of negotiations, ending seven days of sometimes violent protests by cops dissatisfied with their pay.”
Analysis: Police officers wanting equal pay to that of soldiers staged protests last week in Bolivia, which often turned violent. To match the pay soldiers receive, officers would have had to get an increase of 100 percent in their salaries – a sum the country would be unable to financially sustain. Instead, a pay deal raising Bolivian officer salaries by 20 percent was signed and officers have resumed their duties. Read More
“Mexico Election: Presidential Candidates End Campaigns” (06/28/12)
Excerpt: “Campaigning has ended in Mexico’s presidential election which could see the PRI, the party which ruled for most of the 20th century, return to power.”
Analysis: The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidate, Enrique Pena Nieto, currently holds a wide lead over his rivals as Mexico heads to the polls this Sunday, July 1. Official campaigns began three months ago and have been particularly bitter, as protests were incited by youth groups, who have been overwhelmingly anti-PRI, fearing continued corruption and a lack of impactful economic reforms. Drug violence has also been a key issue throughout the election cycle, as drug-related activities have become more brutal and more frequent throughout the past few months. Sunday’s elections, should the results be close, could possibly provoke protests and demonstrations throughout major city centers in the region. However, should Pena Nieto and the PRI win by a wide margin, it is likely that any protests will be short-lived. Read More
“Mercosur ‘to Suspend’ Paraguay Over Lugo Impeachment” (06/28/12)
Excerpt: “The Mercosur trade bloc plans to suspend Paraguay over the impeachment of President Fernando Lugo…but foreign ministers from Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay would recommend against imposing economic sanctions.”
Analysis: South America’s trade bloc, Mercosur, has suspended Paraguay from participation in light of Lugo’s impeachment and the swearing in of the new President (Lugo’s VP), Federico Franco. The other members of the regional trade bloc wanted time to discuss how best to deal with the new Paraguayan government. Paraguay relies heavily on trade within the bloc for economic stability, and no final decision on Paraguay’s future has yet to be determined. Read More
Middle East and North Africa
“Syria Crisis: Fierce Fighting Erupts Near Damascus” (06/26/12)
Excerpt: “Witnesses say it is some of the most intense violence in the area since the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad began more than a year ago.”
Analysis: Syria continues to be plagued with violence, the intensity of which appears to only be increasing. President Assad shows no indications of diminishing the military power aimed against the rebels, as he declared Tuesday that Syria is in a “state of war” and the government should focus on winning this battle. Additionally, UN efforts to mitigate the humanitarian fallout and give assistance to those affected by the fighting have been effectively curbed due to growing threats to UN personnel and the mounting violence. Read More
“Israel Asks Court to Delay Deadline for Demolition of West Bank Neighborhood” (06/26/12)
Excerpt: “Israel’s State Attorney requested that the High Court delay the dismantling of the Ulpana neighborhood in the settlement of Beit El by four and a half months.”
Analysis: The Israeli government is hoping to delay the disassembly of homes in Beit El as the July 1 deadline for these actions approaches. Settlements have long been a contested subject in Israel and a particularly sore spot in Palestinian-Israeli relations. The aim of the delay is to mitigate the potential for violence and to ensure that buildings are not demolished, but rather relocated in order to maintain the structures. Israeli settlers are asking for an 18-week delay. Read More
“Egyptian Court Suspends Military Arrest Powers” (06/26/12)
Excerpt: “An Egyptian court has suspended a government decision allowing military police to arrest civilians…The decree on military arrests caused an uproar among activists and politicians, sparking fears that an attempt was being made to reintroduce unpopular emergency laws.”
Analysis: Recently, the ruling military council, the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (Scaf), has been using decrees and declarations to mitigate Islamist control over executive and legislative institutions. Following the June 16-17 presidential elections, Scaf had issued an interim constitutional declaration, which granted Scaf broad powers. In the wake of the Egyptian Supreme Court’s decision to dissolve parliament, there had been an opportunity for the council to consolidate power more effectively and further infringe upon the Islamist presence. Scaf’s powers will likely cause more issues as President-elect Mohamed Mursi is scheduled to be sworn in on June 30. Read More
“Dozens Dead and Wounded in Iraq Bombings” (06/28/12)
Excerpt: “A series of attacks in Iraq have killed at least 20 people and wounded more than 100, according to local officials, the latest in a wave of deadly attacks this month.”
Analysis: The month of June has seen one of the highest death tolls in Iraq in almost a year and a half, with more than 200 Iraqis killed in attacks since June 13, a death toll higher than the 132 people killed in the entire month of May. Bombings have littered the country in recent weeks, targeting popular marketplaces in Baghdad and Baquba, which has been one of the country’s most volatile regions, as it features a heavily mixed population of Sunnis, Shia and Kurds. Read More
“Iran Sanctions Will Halve Oil Sales But May Still Not Succeed” (06/28/12)
Excerpt: “The EU’s oil embargo comes into full effect on Sunday, marking a dramatic escalation in the pressure on Iran over its nuclear programme. But while the sanctions are biting deeper into Iranians’ lives with each passing day, it is less clear whether they will alter the minds of the Tehran leadership.”
Analysis: The upcoming July 1 deadline for the European embargo has already severely impacted Iran’s ability to sell oil. As the Sunday deadline approaches, Iran has already lost an estimated 600,000 to 800,000 barrels a day in sales. The impending sanctions on Iranian oil exports are also being administered in the hopes that the loss of hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil may bring Iran to the table to negotiate the terms of the nuclear program, with the intention of further delaying oil sanctions. The Western boycott of Iranian oil will certainly impact Tehran’s economic strength, and it will also wreak havoc on the aggregate Iranian population, as prices for staple foods will inevitably soar, making day-to-day life for most increasingly more difficult. As Iranians are faced with increasingly difficult living conditions, it is possible that the EU oil embargo will be further scrutinized as a policy tool, and is likely to have negative implications for any negotiations between Iran and the West. Read More
“Egypt Handover Ceremony Won’t End Mursi’s Army Struggle” (06/29/12)
Excerpt: “Egypt will swear in its first freely elected president tomorrow, completing a chaotic transition to civilian rule while leaving question marks over how he will share power with the generals who have run the country since the fall of Hosni Mubarak.”
Analysis: The Muslim Brotherhood’s candidate Mohamed Mursi, who defeated Ahmed Shafik, former air force commander and Mubarak ally, is a beacon of hope for a transformation in the ruling regime in Egypt. Where once despotic and military-run government was the continual pattern for Egyptian government, Mursi is distinguishable from his predecessors as the first non-military man to take office. Despite Mursi’s victory, a path to democratic rule will be far from seamless. The generals who have been in power despite Mubarak’s absence have dissolved parliament and have acted to further consolidate power before giving in to Mursi’s rule. Mursi now faces a continued uphill battle against the ruling generals, the obstacle of reinstating the parliament by reversing the military council’s power, and the challenge of resolving economic, religious, and social issues that are of import to the people of Egypt. Read More
“Yemen Says al Qaeda Militants May Have Fled to Oman” (06/28/12)
Excerpt: “Some al Qaeda-linked militants may have fled to neighbouring states, including Oman, after being driven out of their strongholds in cities in southern Yemen.”
Analysis: Recent Yemeni military efforts to combat the al-Qaeda presence in the country have been more effective. In May, a large-scale U.S.-backed offensive was launched in order to drive out militants from many strategic strongholds in the country. Some of these efforts have been successful, such as the recapturing of the towns of Zinjibar and Ja’ar, important gains for the Yemeni military. Despite Yemeni military success, there is the possibility that elements of al-Qaeda have now relocated into neighboring Oman, a state where al-Qaeda could potentially establish a new base. Al-Qaeda’s presence in Oman is worrisome, as any disruption to the country’s significant seaborne oil exports could effectively strengthen al-Qaeda’s influence throughout the region more broadly. Read More
Central and South Asia
“World Bank cancels $1.2 billion Bangladesh loan” (06/29/12)
Excerpt: “The World Bank has cancelled a $1.2 billion loan for construction of a bridge in Bangladesh, saying it has credible evidence of corruption involving a Canadian engineering company.”
Analysis: High-level corruption is common in both domestic and international business contracts in Bangladesh. There are significant barriers to trade still in place in the country where even the most basic international transactions involve some sort of bribe or grease payments. The World Bank’s decision to cancel the loan will put pressure on Bangladesh to conduct business in a more transparent manner, at least nominally, before any further aid is granted. The Canadian firm SNC-Lavalin has previously admitted to making improper payments in order to gain contracts. Read More
“India police kill '17 Maoists' in Chhattisgarh” (06/29/12)
Excerpt: “Police in India say they have killed 17 Maoist rebels in an overnight clash in the central state of Chhattisgarh.”
Analysis: The clash in Chhattisgarh that took the life of 17 alleged Maoists is raising skepticism in the state. The Maoists belong to the underground Communist Party of India and claim to be fighting for the rights of India’s impoverished and minority groups. Often referred to as Naxalites, the group routinely attacks authority figures and leads demonstrations and strikes in rural Indian villages. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has stated that he considers the Naxalites India’s biggest internal security threat. Read More
“Goa Investment Forum 2012 seeks to woo investors to the state” (06/30/12)
Excerpt: “PANAJI: Aimed at wooing investors to the state, the Goa Investment Forum 2012 was held in Panaji today with leading executives from major companies in attendance.”
Analysis: The Goa Investment Forum seeks to attract foreign and national investment to the southern state and establish a strong economic hub in the region. State leaders aim to make Goa competitive with Bihar and Uttar Pradesh in terms of profitability and economic growth. Companies present at the forum included Accenture, Wipro, and the Essel Goup. Read More
Sub-Saharan Africa
“Nigeria prison attack frees inmates” (06/25/12)
Excerpt: “Members of Boko Haram, an Islamist armed group from Nigeria, have stormed a prison in Yobe state in the country’s northeast, freeing 40 inmates, police have said, in the latest of a string of attacks blamed on the group… two of the attackers were shot dead and some policemen were injured.”
Analysis: Boko Haram’s attacks have increased in frequency and boldness over recent months, with deadly attacks hitting northern Nigeria every few days. Goodluck Jonathan, the president of Nigeria, has fired his defense staff over their handling of the Boko Haram insurrection and has pledged to change strategy. Boko Haram has been blamed for similar prison breaks in the past. Read More
“Central African Republic: Rebels have attacked an Areva company site” (06/25/12)
Excerpt (translated): “Unidentified rebels have attacked and looted part of a site belonging to the French civil nuclear company Areva near the uranium deposit in Bakouma, in the southeast of the Central African Republic, according to Central African military and French diplomatic sources.”
Analysis: Only one death has been linked to these attacks – a villager near the site – but the rebels did use hostages to show them the way to the company’s site. Although the rebels’ identity is unclear, they are believed to be members of the FPR (Popular Front for Reconstruction), originally from Chad, but operating in the Central African Republic since 2008. Details of the motive for the attack and the items looted are still unclear. Read More
“Khartoum: Sudan austerity protesters ‘tear-gassed’” (06/29/12)
Excerpt: “Sudanese police have fired tear gas at people protesting at recent austerity measures in the capital Khartoum, witnesses say. Some of the demonstrators reportedly carried anti-government placards as President Omar al-Bashir prepares to mark 23 years in power, on Saturday. This is the latest in two weeks of protests, initially led by students.”
Analysis: As the protests in Sudan grow in intensity, observers are increasingly questioning the longevity of Omar al-Bashir’s government. The government has not backed down on either the protests or the economic cuts, re-affirming its intention to keep the subsidy cuts in place and taking extra measures to crack down on protests. The government has also denied any similarity between these protests and the Arab Spring, despite comparisons in the media. Read More
“Aid workers abducted from Kenyan refugee complex” (06/30/12)
Excerpt: “Five aid workers -- four Europeans and a Kenyan -- were kidnapped from Kenya's vast Dadaab refugee complex near the Somali border, police said Friday. Their Kenyan driver was killed, said Philip Ndolo of the Kenyan police. Two other members of staff were injured and are undergoing treatment at a hospital in the capital of Nairobi, officials said.”
Analysis: The kidnappers who abducted these five aid workers also stole their vehicle from an aid agency, and its tracking device indicates the vehicle is still in Kenyan territory. It has not been said whether al-Shabaab, the Islamist group in neighboring Somalia, is suspected in this attack, though it seems likely given the proximity to the Somali border, and the group’s tendency to attack targets across the Kenyan border. Read More
“Mali Islamists destroy holy Timbuktu sites” (06/30/12)
Excerpt: “Al Qaeda-linked Mali Islamists armed with Kalashnikovs and pick-axes destroyed centuries-old mausoleums of saints in the UNESCO-listed city of Timbuktu on Saturday in front of shocked locals, witnesses said. The Islamist Ansar Dine group backs strict sharia, Islamic law, and considers the shrines of the local Sufi version of Islam to be idolatrous”
Analysis: Northern Mali this week has seen a wave of unrest and fighting as rebel groups battle for control of the occupied north of the country. The secular Tuareg rebel group MNLA and the Islamist rebel group Ansar Dine had cooperated to take northern Mali previously, but subsequently struggled to share power. Relations have begun to degenerate in recent weeks, and this week violence erupted into outright battles between Ansar Dine and the MNLA. Ansar Dine successfully took the major towns of Gao and Timbuktu, home to UNESCO world heritage sites; dozens of militants were killed in the fighting. Later, Islamist gunmen fired on Malian youth in Gao protesting the new Islamist rule (Ansar Dine plans to impose strict Sharia law). And most recently, Islamists in control of Timbuktu have begun destroying the sacred tombs of Muslim saints, which are held in high esteem by the population and are world heritage sites, in a move reminiscent of the Taliban’s destruction of Buddhist statues in Afghanistan in early 2001. The Islamists condemn veneration of the saints as a form of idolatry. The youth in Timbuktu have said they plan to resist the Islamist occupation and retaliate for the destruction of their shrines. Read More
East Asia
“Thai Red Shirts stage mass protests” (06/25/12)
Excerpt: “Tens of thousands of supporters of Thailand's ‘Red Shirt’ protest movement have staged a mass rally in Bangkok, police said, amid renewed political tensions in the troubled country. The Reds, who are broadly loyal to fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, marked the 80th anniversary of the coup that ended Thailand's absolute monarchy with a call for the judiciary to stay out of politics.”
Analysis: Protesters in Thailand have been polarized by the figure of Thaksin Shinawatra – both in favor and not in favor of his involvement in politics. Red shirts, the pro-Thaksin group , have been ascendant with the election of Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra. However there have been anti-Thaksin “yellow shirt” protests recently over possible plans to allow Thaksin to return home. Thailand continues to have this tension as the conflict goes unresolved and Yingluck Shinawatra’s government is still in power. Read More
“Vietnam decries ‘illegal’ South China Sea oil bid” (06/27/12)
Excerpt: “Vietnam has protested against China's plan to invite foreign oil bids in a disputed area in the South China Sea, adding to tensions in the region. The foreign ministry said the move was ‘illegal’ and a serious ‘violation of Vietnam's sovereignty.’ It added that the oil blocks are ‘deep inside Vietnam's exclusive economic zone and not a contested area.’”
Analysis: This oil bid is considered inflammatory because of its potential to force the issue of territorial sovereignty over the South China Sea, which is important chiefly because of the possible oil reserves. Vietnam has recently been improving its relations with the U.S., in part fuelled by the competition between Vietnam and China over South China Sea claims. Read More
“South Korea postpones historic military pact with Japan” (06/29/12)
Excerpt: “The South Korean government has abruptly postponed signing a military intelligence agreement with Japan in response to anti-Japanese sentiment. It made the announcement less than an hour before the two sides were to sign their first military pact since Japanese imperial rule ended in 1945. There have been protests in South Korea over the pact to share intelligence.”
Analysis: Much of the impact of this deal was to be in the intelligence sector, with each side benefitting, with Japan’s high tech surveillance and South Korea’s human intelligence. However, anti-Japanese sentiment in South Korea stemming from historical tension because of Japanese imperial rule which ended in 1945. Read More
“Passengers and crew foil hijack attempt in China” (06/30/12)
Excerpt: “Passengers and crew members thwarted an attempt to hijack a plane in the western Chinese province of Xinjiang, local authorities said Friday. Ten minutes into the flight between the cities of Hotan and Urumqi, six people on board the plane tried to take control of it ‘through violence,’ a short statement by the provincial police said. The passengers and crew members managed to subdue the alleged hijackers, sustaining minor injuries in the struggle, police said. The plane then returned to Hotan.”
Analysis: The suspects in this incident are ethnic Uyghurs, which raises suspicions that the attempted hijacking was meant to be a political statement about the state of the Uyghur population in China, which has seen unrest recently, as well as limited terrorist activity, which could be linked to this attempted hijacking. Read More
Europe
“Gunmen set fire to Microsoft office in Athens” (06/27/12)
Excerpt: “Armed men have rammed a van full of gas canisters into a Microsoft office in the Greek capital Athens, setting it alight, but nobody was hurt. They threatened security guards with guns during the attack on the office in the Athens suburb of Maroussi at around 04:35 (01:45 GMT), police said. The van was destroyed and the floor of the building badly damaged.”
Analysis: Attacks of this nature, especially arson attacks, are more common in Greece now in the midst of its economic hard times, but it is not yet known who carried out these attacks are why. Extremist left-wing groups are a possible suspect, though no official statements have been made, nor have there been any claims of responsibility for the attack. Read More
“Clashes injure dozens as Serbs visit Kosovo battle site” (06/28/12)
Excerpt: “More than 50 people have been injured in clashes between police and Serbs who were visiting a historic battle site in Kosovo. About 70 Serbs were visiting Gazimestan, near the capital Pristina, site of a 1389 battle that saw the Ottoman Empire defeat the Serb army. The clashes took place after police said the Serbs were disturbing public order and turned them back.”
Analysis: Tensions between Kosovars and Serbs have been high recently. The last incident between them was violence stemming from the removal by NATO peacekeepers of roadblocks set up by Serbs living in northern Kosovo, which resulting in violent clashes. These latest clashes that occurred at a historic battle site where Serb forces fought troops of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle Ages. The Serbs visiting the site were said to be acting disruptively. Read More
“Spanish ETA terror suspects arrested in London” (06/2912)
Excerpt: “Two members of the Basque separatist movement ETA, including one who has been convicted of more than 20 murders, were arrested Friday in London over alleged terror offenses, the Spanish Interior Ministry said. The men were detained at a west London home by officers from the Metropolitan Police's Counter Terrorism Command.”
Analysis: The Basque separatist group the ETA has been on the decline in recent years. Having called a unilateral ceasefire in 2011, they recently attempted to hold talks in an attempt to transition into a legitimate political party, but were rebuffed by the governments of Spain and France, who they invited to the talks. These arrests, while not unexpected, are further setbacks for the separatists. Read More
russia and the caucasus
“Russia leads world in illegal migration” (06/29/12)
Excerpt: “Russia has the world's largest number of illegal migrants, accounting for almost seven percent of the country's working population, according to a report by the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).”
Analysis: According to this report conducted by the OECD, approximately 7 percent of the Russian workforce consists of illegal immigrants. This is in comparison to the United States, where nearly 3.5 percent of the workforce lives in the country illegally. Legal migration to Russia is predominately from the former Soviet bloc nations such as Kazakhstan and Ukraine, and the majority of illegal immigration stem from these countries, as well. There have been recent talks among Russian lawmakers to expel illegal immigrants and place restrictions upon their ability to reenter the country. Read More
“Georgia names police chief as prime minister” (06/30/12)
Excerpt: “Georgia's president has named the ex-Soviet state's powerful interior ministry chief as the country's new prime minister in a surprise move ahead of crucial parliamentary polls in autumn.”
Analysis: This developing news story just out of Tbilisi could indicate some political tensions within Georgia. The sacking of Prime Minister Nika Gilauri right before parliamentary polls is definitely a political maneuver by the President Mikheil Saakashvili, but for now it is unclear to what end. Georgia has one of the most stable economies in the former Soviet bloc, and has recently opened itself to increased foreign investment. Read More
“Russia makes foreign investors wait on ruble bonds” (06/27/12)
Excerpt: “Russia is aiming to make it much easier for foreign investors to buy its ruble-priced sovereign bonds, but legal and regulatory hurdles are hobbling progress on a change that could swell outside investments in the country’s debt.”
Analysis: Russia’s attempts to ease foreign purchase of the nation’s sovereign debt come as the crisis in the euro-zone deepens and investors are looking towards developing nations. The country’s recent moves to ease foreign investment are reflected by this transition, though the legal process for allowing ease of access is a lengthy one. The ruble, which has been falling against the euro and dollar this quarter, is expected to stabilize and appreciate over the medium term. Purchasing Russian debt in the form of bonds also shelters investors from euro and dollar pressures. Read More
